Initial venous lactate levels as a predictor of mortality in severe sepsis: a single-center retrospective cohort study
Corresponding authors: Piraya Vichiensanth, Email:piraya.vic@mahidol.edu
Received: 2022-03-6 Accepted: 2022-06-20
Cite this article
Thidathit Prachanukool, Pitsucha Sanguanwit, Karn Suttapanit Chaiyaporn Yuksen, Piraya Vichiensanth.
Elevated serum lactate levels, which have been observed even during hemodynamic stability, have been considered an important marker of impaired tissue perfusion among sepsis patients. Some studies have established lactate levels as diagnostic, therapeutic, and prognostic indicators of tissue perfusion in sepsis.[4,5] Previous studies have also shown that elevated blood lactate levels were associated with an increased risk of death. [4,5]
Increased blood lactate levels have been used to identify critically ill patients at high risk of death even before the development of hemodynamic instability.[6⇓⇓-9] Scott et al[7] observed a 3-fold increase in 30-d mortality in children with a venous lactate level >36 mg/dL. Early venous lactate levels assist in the assessment of sepsis severity. Venous lactate levels are able to predict outcomes among patients with sepsis. Venous lactate levels are more manageable and less painful to determine compared to arterial samples.[10] The peripheral venous lactate levels may serve as an alternative to arterial blood lactate measurements to predict in-hospital mortality.[8,9]
Blood lactate levels can be measured by various devices (central laboratory, point-of-care blood gas analyzer). Most devices used at the bedside have acceptable limits of agreement compared to central laboratory devices.[10]
This study aimed to compare the predictability of venous lactate to other measures, such as arterial lactate, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), quick SOFA (qSOFA), and systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) criteria, to predict 28-d hospital mortality and morbidity in patients with sepsis admitted to the ED.
METHODS
Study design and setting
This study was a retrospective cohort. A prognostic prediction research study was conducted in the ED, Faculty of Medicine Ramathibodi Hospital, a university-affiliated super tertiary care hospital in Bangkok, Thailand. The Ethics Committee of the Faculty of Medicine, Ramathibodi Hospital, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand, approved this study in terms of Human Rights Related to Research Involving Human Subjects (Ethics code: MURA2017/247, date of IRB approval 22 May 2017).
Inclusion and exclusion criteria
Patients who visited the ED with clinical SIRS determined from the electronic medical record from August 2015 to March 2017 were recruited (Figure 1).
Figure 1.
Figure 1.
Patient inclusion flow diagram.
The eligible criteria were patients older than 15 years who visited the ED for severe sepsis. According to the Surviving Sepsis Campaign 2012 guideline,[2] severe sepsis was defined as sepsis-induced tissue hypoperfusion or organ dysfunction (any of the following thought to be due to the infection): (1) sepsis-induced hypotension; (2) blood lactate level above the upper limits of the normal laboratory; (3) urine output <0.5 mL/(kg·h) for more than 2 h despite adequate fluid resuscitation; (4) acute lung injury with PaO2/FiO2 <250 mmHg (1 mmHg=0.133 kPa) in the absence of pneumonia as the infection source; (5) acute lung injury with PaO2/FiO2 <200 mmHg in the presence of pneumonia as the infection source; (6) creatinine >2.0 mg/dL; (7) total bilirubin >2 mg/dL; (8) platelet count <100,000/cumm; and (9) coagulopathy (international normalized ratio >1.5).
The exclusion criteria were as follows: (1) not following the sepsis protocol; (2) do-not-attempt resuscitation; or (3) incomplete medical records.
Data collection
The researchers reviewed the medical records in the database software of RAMATHIBODI electronic medical record (EMR). Because this was a retrospective observational cohort study, the researchers did not influence clinical decision-making. The clinicians were blinded to the data collection process.
The potential confounding factors, such as age, sex, comorbidities, information at the ED triage area, initial venous lactate level, and arterial lactate level, were recorded. The qSOFA score and SIRS criteria were calculated from the patient data. Treatments, such as a mechanical ventilator, vasopressors, and time to antibiotic administration, were reviewed from the hospital database.
In the ED, lactate levels were used to screen suspected sepsis patients. Every suspected sepsis patient had serum lactate checked within 20 min of the initial ED physician evaluation. The patients with initial venous lactate levels >4 mmol/L were re-evaluated for arterial lactate levels and analyzed by point-of-care BloodGas GEM 3000 (codei1 sr02971).
Primary and secondary outcomes
The primary outcome of this study was to determine the initial venous lactate level as a predictor of 28-d hospital mortality. The secondary outcomes were defined as a predictor of the vasopressor and mechanical ventilator used within 24 h among patients with sepsis in the ED.
Statistical analyses
Categorical variables are expressed as absolute values and percentages and continuous variables as medians and interquartile ranges (IQRs). Categorical variables were compared using the Chi-square test or Fisher’s exact test when appropriate, while continuous variables were compared using the Mann-Whitney U-test.
We used the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve and odds ratio (OR) from logistic regression to assess the initial venous lactate’s ability to determine the primary and secondary outcomes. The model calibration was also evaluated using the Hosmer-Lemeshow test with a P-value <0.05 suggesting imperfective calibration and the observed-to-expected (O/E) ratio with a ratio of 1 indicating perfect calibration. Correlations between venous and arterial lactate levels were also presented using the equation. We used Stata version 14.0 (StataCorp LP., USA) for statistical analyses.
RESULTS
Demographic and descriptive data
The demographic and descriptive data of the 460 included patients are listed in Table 1. Non-survivors had higher initial venous lactate levels (median, 5.9 mmol/L vs. 4.0 mmol/L; P=0.001).
Table 1. Demographic and descriptive data of the included patients
Demographic data | All (n=460) | Non-survivors (n=130) | Survivors (n=330) | P-value |
---|---|---|---|---|
Age, years | 70 (59-81) | 69 (59-82) | 72 (59-80) | 0.970 |
Male | 233 (50.7) | 68 (52.3) | 165 (50.0) | 0.660 |
Comorbidities | ||||
Systemic hypertension | 223 (48.5) | 53 (40.7) | 170 (51.5) | 0.030 |
Diabetes mellitus | 136 (29.6) | 34 (26.2) | 102 (30.9) | 0.310 |
Congestive heart failure | 25 (5.4) | 9 (6.9) | 16 (4.8) | 0.380 |
End-stage renal disease | 13 (2.8) | 5 (3.8) | 8 (2.4) | 0.410 |
Oncologic | 118 (25.6) | 46 (35.4) | 72 (21.8) | 0.003 |
Transplant | 12 (2.6) | 3 (2.3) | 9 (2.7) | 0.802 |
Liver cirrhosis | 29 (6.3) | 12 (9.2) | 17 (5.2) | 0.110 |
Ischemic heart disease | 48 (10.4) | 14 (10.8) | 34 (10.3) | 0.880 |
Neuromuscular disease | 131 (28.5) | 30 (23.1) | 101 (30.6) | 0.110 |
Source of infection | ||||
Respiratory system | 247 (53.7) | 86 (66.2) | 161 (48.8) | 0.001 |
Gastrointestinal system | 92 (20.0) | 19 (14.6) | 73 (22.1) | 0.070 |
Urinary system | 63 (13.7) | 10 (7.7) | 53 (16.1) | 0.020 |
Skin infection | 18 (3.9) | 4 (3.1) | 14 (4.2) | 0.560 |
Blood stream | 17 (3.7) | 5 (3.8) | 12 (3.6) | 0.910 |
Systolic blood pressure, mmHg | 115 (90-139) | 107 (83-135) | 120 (95-142) | 0.004 |
Mean arterial pressure, mmHg | 81 (66-97) | 76 (62-92) | 82 (68-99) | 0.010 |
Diagnosis at ED | ||||
Septic shock | 141 (30.6) | 57 (43.8) | 84 (25.5) | 0.001 |
Time to antibiotic administration, min | 50 (35-65) | 45 (35-60) | 50 (35-68) | 0.270 |
Positive hemoculture | 108 (23.5) | 33 (25.4) | 75 (22.7) | 0.560 |
Initial venous lactate, mmol/L | 4.2 (2.9-6.4) | 5.9 (3.1-9.4) | 4.0 (2.7-5.5) | 0.001 |
Initial arterial lactate, mmol/L | 4.0 (2.3-6.0) | 5.4 (3.0-8.8) | 3.5 (2.0-5.2) | 0.001 |
SIRS criteria | 3 (2-3) | 3 (3-4) | 2 (2-3) | 0.001 |
qSOFA score | 1 (1-2) | 2 (1-3) | 1 (1-2) | 0.001 |
SOFA score | 6 (4-10) | 10 (8-12) | 5 (3-7) | 0.001 |
Vasopressor use on day one | 201 (43.7) | 96 (73.8) | 105 (31.8) | 0.001 |
Mechanical ventilation on day one | 275 (59.8) | 123 (94.6) | 152 (46.1) | 0.001 |
Data are expressed as n (%) and medians and interquartile ranges; SIRS: systemic inflammatory response syndrome; qSOFA: quick sequential organ failure assessment.
Univariate and multivariate analyses
Univariate analysis revealed odds ratios of 1.19 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.12-1.27) for initial venous lactate level, 2.31 (95% CI 1.74-3.06) for qSOFA score, 0.65 (95% CI 0.42-0.97) for hypertension, 1.12 (95% CI 0.85-1.22) for active malignancy, and 1.57 (95% CI 1.22-1.7) for respiratory tract infection (supplementary Table 1).
Multivariate analysis identified initial venous lactate (adjusted OR 1.17, 95% CI 1.09-1.24) and qSOFA score (adjusted OR 2.12, 95% CI 1.58-2.83) as independent factors for 28-d hospital mortality (supplementary Table 1).
Performance of initial venous or arterial lactate
The performance of initial venous lactate and initial arterial lactate for predicting outcomes is presented in Table 2.
Table 2. Performance of initial venous lactate and initial arterial lactate for predicting outcomes
Outcomes | Calibration | Discrimination | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
HL chi2 | P-value | O/E ratio (95% CI) | AUROC curve (95% CI) | P-value | |
7-d hospital mortality | 3.38 | 0.493 | 0.96 (0.73-1.19) | 0.67 (0.60-0.74) | 0.001 |
Initial venous lactate (n=460) | |||||
Initial arterial lactate (n=433) | 2.42 | 0.654 | 0.97 (0.74-1.20) | 0.69 (0.62-0.76) | 0.001 |
28-d hospital mortality | 5.69 | 0.227 | 1.00 (0.84-1.16) | 0.65 (0.60-0.71) | 0.001 |
Initial venous lactate (n=460) | |||||
Initial arterial lactate (n=433) | 2.89 | 0.583 | 1.00 (0.84-1.17) | 0.66 (0.60-0.72) | 0.001 |
Vasopressor use on day one | 5.46 | 0.492 | 1.00 (0.89-1.11) | 0.62 (0.57-0.68) | 0.001 |
Initial venous lactate (n=460) | |||||
Initial arterial lactate (n=433) | 6.46 | 0.376 | 1.00 (0.89-1.12) | 0.60 (0.55-0.66) | 0.001 |
Ventilator use on day one | 11.32 | 0.021 | 1.00 (0.92-1.08) | 0.54 (0.48-0.60) | 0.150 |
Initial venous lactate (n=460) | |||||
Initial arterial lactate (n=433) | 8.00 | 0.165 | 1.00 (0.92-1.07) | 0.58 (0.53-0.64) | 0.010 |
HL: Hosmer-Lemeshow; O/E ratio: observed-to-expected ratio; CI: confidence interval; AUROC curve: area under the receiver operating characteristic curve.
The initial venous lactate level had a modest ability to predict vasopressor administration within 24 h of ED arrival; however, it had a poor ability to predict mechanical ventilator use within 24 h after ED arrival (Table 2).
The Hosmer-Lemeshow test for initial venous lactate and arterial lactate levels was not significant. The O/E ratio was near 1, indicating good calibration and the ability to predict 7-d and 28-d hospital mortality and vasopressor administration within 24 h.
The ability of the initial venous lactate level to discriminate between survivors and non-survivors after 28 d was not inferior to that of the qSOFA score and SIRS criteria (supplementary Figure 1). There was no significant difference in the ability to predict mortality between the initial venous lactate level and the qSOFA score (P=0.89) or SIRS criteria (P=0.4).
DISCUSSION
In a recent study conducted in Thailand, Musikatavorn et al[9] reported that a single measurement of initial venous lactate was not associated with 30-d mortality. However, the study included non-elderly patients with sepsis who had hemodynamic stability. In another study in Thailand, Permpikul et al[11] reported that patients with severe sepsis and septic shock who had an initial lactate level >2 mmol/L suffered higher mortality (43.6%). The study did not indicate whether the initial lactate measurements were arterial or venous. Our study showed that the initial venous lactate level could predict 7-d and 28-d hospital mortality among patients with severe sepsis with or without shock. Moreover, no significant difference was observed between the initial venous lactate level and arterial lactate level in their ability to predict 7-d and 28-d hospital mortality and vasopressor administration within 24 h. However, our results showed that the initial venous lactate level was not associated with mechanical ventilator use within 24 h. Our study found that only respiratory tract infections, such as pneumonia, bronchitis, and tracheobronchitis, were independent factors associated with mechanical ventilator use during the first day (adjusted OR 4.76, 95% CI 2.97-7.63, adjusted by qSOFA, initial venous lactate, COPD, time to antibiotic and systolic blood pressure).
Many prognostic scores have been developed and used to predict the risk of death and early resuscitation for patients with sepsis to reduce mortality rates. The qSOFA score and SIRS criteria have been easy to use in the ED. Previous studies have shown that the qSOFA score has an excellent ability to predict mortality among patients with sepsis both inside and outside the intensive care unit.[12⇓-14] Another study, however, showed that the qSOFA score failed to detect severe sepsis and had a more inferior ability to predict mortality compared to SIRS criteria.[15]
The present study showed that initial venous lactate’s ability to discriminate between survivors and non-survivors within 28 d was not inferior to that of the qSOFA score and SIRS criteria. Multivariate analysis showed that the initial venous lactate level and qSOFA score were independent predictors of 28-d mortality.
This study has some limitations. This study was a retrospective study conducted in a single center. ED overcrowding and the availability of hospital admission to definite treatment may have affected patient outcomes. The information bias of the reviewer may be our limitation.
CONCLUSIONS
Initial venous lactate levels may have a modest ability to predict 7-d and 28-d hospital mortality and vasopressor administration within 24 h during severe sepsis. Moreover, no significant differences in the ability to predict 7-d and 28-d hospital mortality were observed between the initial venous lactate level and the qSOFA score or SIRS criteria.
Funding: None.
Ethical approval: The Ethics Committee of Faculty of Medicine, Ramathibodi Hospital, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand, approved this study in terms of Human Rights Related to Research Involving Human Subjects (Ethics code: MURA2017/247, date of IRB approval 22 May 2017).
Conflicts of interest: No benefits in any form have been received or will be received from a commercial party related directly or indirectly to the subject of this article.
Contributors: TP wrote the first draft. All authors contributed to the design and interpretation of the study and to further drafts.
All the supplementary files in this paper are available at http://wjem.com.cn.
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To provide an update to the "Surviving Sepsis Campaign Guidelines for Management of Severe Sepsis and Septic Shock," last published in 2008.A consensus committee of 68 international experts representing 30 international organizations was convened. Nominal groups were assembled at key international meetings (for those committee members attending the conference). A formal conflict of interest policy was developed at the onset of the process and enforced throughout. The entire guidelines process was conducted independent of any industry funding. A stand-alone meeting was held for all subgroup heads, co- and vice-chairs, and selected individuals. 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Recommendations specific to pediatric severe sepsis include: therapy with face mask oxygen, high flow nasal cannula oxygen, or nasopharyngeal continuous PEEP in the presence of respiratory distress and hypoxemia (2C), use of physical examination therapeutic endpoints such as capillary refill (2C); for septic shock associated with hypovolemia, the use of crystalloids or albumin to deliver a bolus of 20 mL/kg of crystalloids (or albumin equivalent) over 5-10 min (2C); more common use of inotropes and vasodilators for low cardiac output septic shock associated with elevated systemic vascular resistance (2C); and use of hydrocortisone only in children with suspected or proven "absolute"' adrenal insufficiency (2C).Strong agreement existed among a large cohort of international experts regarding many level 1 recommendations for the best care of patients with severe sepsis. 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Our study aims to investigate the role of initial venous lactate in predicting the probability of clinical deterioration and 30-day mortality in nonelderly sepsis patients with acute infections, without hemodynamic shock.We enrolled emergency department patients aged 18 to 65 years with acute major infections, but without organ hypoperfusion, and obtained a single venous lactate measurement at initial presentation. As the primary end point, the eligible patients were tracked for the need for vasopressor or mechanical ventilation (MV) in the next 72 hours. The patients' venous lactate and related risk factors were analyzed. We also followed the cohort and the predictors to investigate their prognostic role for 30-day mortality.Of 392 patients, 74 required vasopressor/MV, and 388 patients were available for mortality analysis. An initial lactate greater than or equal to 2 mmol/L was the strongest independent predictor for the requirement of vasopressor/MV (adjusted odds ratio, 6.2; 95% confidence interval, 3.4-11.3). The other independent risk factors were immunosuppressive drug users and positive blood culture. However, the initial lactate was not associated with 30-day mortality. The factors that were associated with mortality were the use of vasopressor/MV, active malignancy, Rapid Emergency Medicine Score greater than or equal to 6, and hospitalization within 90 days.In nonelderly sepsis patients with stable hemodynamic, elevated venous lactate (≥2 mmol/L) was associated with an increased probability of the need for vasopressor/MV. However, unfavorable medical histories and the severity of physiologic changes may be associated with short-term mortality to a greater extent than the single value of initial lactate.Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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