Identifying critically ill patients at risk of death from coronavirus disease

Wei Guo, Lin-yu Ran, Ji-hong Zhu, Qing-gang Ge, Zhe Du, Fei-long Wang, Wei-bo Gao, Tian-bing Wang

Table 1 Performance of variables for predicting in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients*

Variables AUC 95% CI Cut-off value Sensitivity (%) Specificity (%) P SOFA 0.960 0.908-0.987 2 94.29 93.02 <0.001 Free triiodothyronine 0.863 0.761-0.932 3.25 pmol/L 94.44 75.93 <0.001 Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio 0.857 0.782-0.914 8.48 85.71 79.07 <0.001 Procalcitonin 0.850 0.771-0.910 0.38 ng/mL 84.85 76.54 <0.001 Neutrophil count 0.842 0.764-0.902 5.71×109/L 82.86 77.91 <0.001 Prothrombin time 0.828 0.748-0.891 15.2 seconds 71.43 85.88 <0.001 White blood cell count 0.827 0.747-0.889 7.04×109/L 85.71 70.93 <0.001 Ferritin 0.827 0.744-0.892 862.7 μg/L 94.12 58.44 <0.001 Direct bilirubin 0.826 0.746-0.889 5.2 μmol/L 80.00 74.12 <0.001 High sensitive C-reactive protein 0.824 0.742-0.889 131.1 mg/L 68.57 85.00 <0.001 Albumin 0.811 0.730-0.877 31.9 g/L 94.29 61.63 <0.001 High sensitive troponin I 0.808 0.722-0.877 33.4 ng/mL 73.53 86.84 <0.001 Total bilirubin 0.794 0.711-0.862 10.1 μmol/L 85.71 61.63 <0.001 Lactate dehydrogenase 0.794 0.710-0.862 425 U/L 77.14 76.74 <0.001 NT-proBNP 0.793 0.704-0.864 247 pg/mL 96.97 56.58 <0.001 Creatine kinase muscle brain isoenzyme 0.793 0.695-0.870 2.2 ng/mL 70.37 87.69 <0.001 Fibrin degradation products 0.792 0.701-0.866 8.9 μg/mL 81.25 69.01 <0.001 D-dimer 0.786 0.702-0.856 2.21 μg/mL 80.00 68.24 <0.001 Aspartate aminotransferase 0.763 0.677-0.836 33 U/L 88.57 60.47 <0.001 Blood urea nitrogen 0.761 0.675-0.834 5.2 μmol/L 91.43 56.98 <0.001 Lymphocyte count 0.734 0.646-0.811 0.65×109/L 68.57 74.42 <0.001 qSOFA 0.734 0.646-0.810 0 97.14 32.56 <0.001 Myohemoglobin 0.726 0.622-0.814 87 ng/mL 77.78 60.94 <0.001 Interleukin-2 receptor 0.720 0.627-0.802 1,215 U/mL 73.53 64.47 <0.001 Glucose 0.717 0.626-0.797 6.39 mmol/L 77.14 65.43 <0.001 AT3 0.710 0.611-0.796 78% 45.16 87.14 <0.001 Free thyroxine 0.693 0.573-0.796 19.35 pmol/L 83.33 55.56 0.003 Alanine aminotransferase 0.677 0.586-0.759 50 U/L 42.86 88.37 0.001 Creatine kinase 0.664 0.569-0.750 207 U/L 53.57 84.88 0.012 Platelet count 0.650 0.558-0.734 239×109/L 85.71 44.19 0.008 Age 0.626 0.534-0.712 56 88.57 31.40 0.021